Heat events in Southeast Asia are becoming more frequent and intense due to climate change, with fewer cold extremes. By mid-century, some areas may face 60 more days of extreme heat, and by century’s end, up to 250 more days under a business-as-usual scenario.

Rising sea levels, heavier rainfall, and more destructive storms also pose growing threats, especially to coastal cities like Bangkok and Manila. Temperatures in the region could rise by up to 5°C by the end of the century.

Key concerns include public health preparedness, food security, and the impact on sinking megacities.

What you need to know

• Observations suggest that heat events in Southeast Asia have become more intense and frequent, while cold extremes have become less common. This is likely caused by human-caused climate change. 
• The rise in the intensity and frequency of hot extremes and the decline in cold extremes are projected to increase as the planet continues to warm.  
• The number of days with high heat stress—with temperatures above 35 °C—is expected to increase by more than 60 days in some parts of Southeast Asia by the mid-21st century under a high emissions scenario.
• By the end of the century, the number of days with dangerous heat stress—with temperatures above 41 °C—is projected to increase by 100 days in some areas under a low emission scenario and by about 250 days under a business as usual scenario.
• There is medium confidence that heavy rainfall events have intensified in the region. 
• Increased flooding and landslides are expected as a result of more intense precipitation and land-use changes. 
• In Southeast Asia, sea level measured relative to land has risen. Land subsidence due to groundwater extraction could be considered as a factor for this increase. 
• Fewer and more destructive tropical cyclones have affected the region. However, there is medium confidence the frequency of intense storms will rise. 
• The mean sea level in the region will continue to rise over long periods of time and for higher emissions scenarios, but with regional variability. This could increase the chance for coastal flooding.
• Southeast Asia will continue to warm, with temperatures rising by less than 5 °C by the end of the 21st century, under a business as usual scenario.

FAQs

What are the primary climate change impacts observed in Southeast Asia?

Southeast Asia has experienced more frequent and intense heat events, fewer cold extremes, heavier rainfall, rising sea levels, and changes in cyclone patterns.

What are the consequences of increased rainfall in the region?

Increase in precipitation events can lead to flooding, landslides, and erosion.

How have tropical cyclones changed in Southeast Asia?

The number of tropical cyclones has decreased. However, the intensity of storms has increased. 

Why are sea levels rising in the region?

Sea levels are rising due to the thermal expansion of ocean water and the melting of glaciers. Land subsidence in coastal areas also contributes to relative sea level rise. 

Use this line

• Southeast Asia is projected to experience continued warming, with temperatures expected to rise by less than 5 °C by the end of the 21st century under a business-as-usual scenario.
• The region has experienced a decrease in the number of tropical cyclones, but those that do occur tend to be more destructive. However, there is medium confidence in a rise in the frequency of intense storms.

Angles you can explore

Public health preparedness

• Examine the preparedness of healthcare systems in the region to cope with heat waves and water-borne diseases
• Assess whether hospitals are constructed to withstand destructive winds, storm surges, and flooding associated with extreme weather events
• Explore strategies for preparing and adapting healthcare services to disruptions caused by climate change

Impact on agriculture and food security

• Analyze the impact of cyclones and droughts on rice production, a staple food in Southeast Asia, and the potential for food shortages

Coastal threats

• Southeast Asia is home to sinking megacities such as Bangkok, Jakarta, Manila and Ho Chi Minh City. Highlight the potential impacts of sea level rise and land subsidence on tourism, fisheries, and cultural heritage sites.

Regional cooperation and climate action

• Discuss specific regional initiatives and collaborations aimed at addressing climate change in Southeast Asia
• Discuss the need for increased climate finance to support adaptation and mitigation efforts in the region

For detailed insights, explore the 2024 Philippine Climate Change Assessment, Working Group I: The Physical Science Basis, available here.