The Philippines is highly susceptible to tropical cyclones due to its location in the Western North Pacific. Annually, an average of 20 cyclones form or enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility. 

These storms, intensified by warmer ocean temperatures caused by climate change, often bring heavy rainfall and strong winds. This can lead to substantial damage to infrastructure, disrupt livelihoods, displace communities, and result in loss of life.

What you need to know

• The Philippines, an archipelago situated in the Western North Pacific (WNP), is a highly vulnerable country to tropical cyclones. Around 60% of tropical cyclones forming in the WNP pass through the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).
• Since 2012, the Philippines has experienced a 210% increase in tropical cyclone occurrences during the least active season.
• The frequency of tropical cyclones in the southern region Mindanao also has surged by 490% since 2012. 
• Stronger and slower-moving tropical cyclones can cause heavy and prolonged rainfall along their path. Between 1951 and 2014, cyclones induced over 40% of total rainfall in Luzon. 
• The contribution of cyclone rain has increased from 16.9% to 19.3% per decade since 2000.
• From 1958 to 2017, the number of days with heavy rainfall in the Philippines increased by about 6% each decade, while the total amount of heavy rainfall from these events rose by 12.7% per decade. This rise is attributed to tropical cyclones that pass northeast of the Philippines and enhance the flow of southeast monsoon (habagat).
• During El Niño events, cyclones form farther east and follow longer, recurring tracks, resulting in fewer storms developing inside the PAR. 
• Conversely, during La Niña events, cyclones form close to the Philippines, follow straighter tracks, and have shorter durations. Thus, more cyclones form within the PAR. 
• The cost of typhoon-related damage rose significantly from 1984 to 2018. The onslaught of Super Typhoon Haiyan, locally known as Yolanda, in 2013 was a major contributor to this trend. 
• While overall typhoon damage costs have decreased in recent years, the costs incurred during the less active cyclone season have continued to increase. 
• Areas with a five-year return period for cyclones can cause about 1% of economic losses, while rarer storms with a 20 to 50 year return period can lead to at least 2% of economic decline. 
• Due to frequent storms, areas in Eastern Visayas and Cagayan Valley are expected to see substantial economic losses of 7.58% and 1.60%, respectively. During rare and severe storms, losses could climb up to 20% in these regions.
• A slight decrease in the number of tropical cyclones within the PAR is projected. However, these storms are expected to be more intense, especially if global emissions remain high throughout the 21st century.
  

FAQs

Why is the Philippines highly vulnerable to tropical cyclones? 

Around 60% of the tropical cyclones that form in the Western North Pacific region pass through the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).

How has the frequency of tropical cyclones changed in the Philippines in recent years?

Since 2012, the frequency of tropical cyclones has increased significantly during the least active season—from January to May—and in Mindanao. 

How is climate change affecting the development of tropical cyclones? 

Warmer ocean temperatures due to climate change causes tropical cyclones to become more intense. As cyclones traverse warm waters, they absorb more heat and moisture, resulting in stronger winds and heavier rainfall. 

What is the projected trend for tropical cyclones in the Philippines?

The number of tropical cyclones in the PAR may decrease slightly. However, the cyclones that do form are expected to be more intense, particularly under a high-emissions scenario.

How do tropical cyclones affect the Philippines?

Tropical cyclones cause heavy rainfall, flooding, landslides, destruction of infrastructure, loss of livelihoods, and displacement of communities. Cyclones also destroy crops and damage farmlands, which can result in food shortages and increased prices of goods. 

Use this line

• Since 2012, occurrences of Christmas typhoons have increased by 210%. The frequency of these storms in Mindanao has surged by 490% during the same period.
• A slight decrease in the number of tropical cyclones within the Philippine Area of Responsibility is expected, but those that do form are likely to become more intense, especially if global emissions remain high throughout the 21st century.

Angles you can explore

Impacts of storms

• If a tropical cyclone is approaching your area, ensure your audience understands the potential impacts of its rain and winds. Provide them information about what to prepare, when heavy rain and strong winds are expected, and which areas are vulnerable to flooding and landslides.
• Advancements in cyclone forecasting and prediction models

Climate connection

• Explore how climate change is contributing to the intensification of tropical cyclones, including increased rainfall and wind speeds

Socioeconomic and human impact

• Assess how tropical cyclones can disrupt livelihoods, particularly in agriculture and tourism
• Highlight communities most vulnerable to storms and their strategies for adapting
• Report on the forced displacement of people due to tropical cyclones and the long-term consequences of climate migration

Disaster preparedness and response

• Investigate the effectiveness of early warning systems as well as disaster preparedness and response plans, and identify areas for improvement
• Explore strategies for adaptation such as building designs that can withstand flooding, sea walls, mangroves, wetlands, and coral reefs,and zoning laws that limit development in high-risk flood areas

For detailed insights, explore the 2024 Philippine Climate Change Assessment, Working Group I: The Physical Science Basis, available here.