When you visit Thailand, you’ll fall for its mangoes — golden, fragrant, everywhere. From sticky rice to cheesecake, the fruit sweetens hot days. This year, though, there’s almost too much to love.

Mango production jumped by more than 20 percent, flooding everything from commercial orchards to backyard trees with fruit. The government scrambled with mango festivals and supermarket promos — even gas stations handed out free fruit for every 10 USD bill. Still, prices collapsed, and many farmers dumped their harvest or left mangoes to rot on trees rather than spend more on labor than they’d ever earn back.

“Last year I sold my mangoes at 35 baht a kilo (1 USD). This year I can only sell at 3.5 (0.10 USD) — I’ve lost tenfold,” said Pairoet Limruasri, a mango farmer in his sixties who tends three hectares of orchards in Ban Hong district, Lamphun province, northern Thailand.

Mango is a key cash crop in Ban Hong, especially for older farmers who see it as less labor-intensive than rice. Early in the year, the sight of heavy, fruit-laden trees brought excitement. But a few months later, that joy collapsed with the price.

“This is the worst I have ever seen,” said Pairoet. “It was even better during COVID.”

Why so many mangoes this year?

Pairoet first noticed the signs in January, when tiny mango buds burst into pale yellow, tail-like flowers that soon outshone the trees’ green foliage.

The reason, experts say, was an unusual cold wave that lasted more than two weeks of that month. The average temperature dropped 1°C than usual across the country, according to the Thai Meteorological Department.

“This year’s colder weather triggered the tropical fruit trees to flower, including those in not so healthy conditions,” said Dr. Winai Wiriyaalongkorn, a horticulture expert at Maejo University who studies climate impacts on fruit.

Mango trees thrive when temperatures dip between 10–15°C, storing energy that sparks flowering. Once the temperature climbs toward 30°C, pollination begins. This year, the sudden chill created a perfect storm: blossoms everywhere, fruit soon after.

Meteorologists say that the temperature drop in January could be attributed to the changing climate. Unusually cold air from China drifted into Thailand, a ripple effect of the Polar Vortex.

The Polar Vortex is a large area of low pressure and cold air surrounding the Earth’s poles. But rising global temperatures have disturbed this system. When the jet stream — a band of strong winds high in the atmosphere — weakens, it allows cold air to spill farther south.

“The polar jet stream steers off their normal pattern. This lets the Polar Vortex from the North Pole travel southward to temperature latitude regions like China,” explained Dr. Sonthi Kotchawat, climate expert from the Thai Environment Academics Association.

“Although Thailand has not experienced the Polar Vortex directly from the pole, we can say we bear a result from it.”

He added that climate has many factors involved. The cold weeks in January are also a result of the La Niña phenomenon that brings moisture from the ocean inland.

Lack of climate study

With customers waiting in South Korea — the top destination for Thailand’s golden fruit — Pairoet thought he could survive the oversupply. But early rains in May ruined the smooth skins of his mangoes, leaving black spots. His export orders were canceled.

Pairoet admits he doesn’t trust weather forecasts, so he didn’t prepare for the rain, which came a week earlier than recent years as climate variability shifts toward La Niña.

His skepticism is shared by another farmer, Theerawat Putchan, who believes the meteorological office doesn’t provide the most accurate predictions.

“I listen to the weather forecast in the news from time to time,” said Theerawat, who owns a one-hectare orchard in Phayao province, a five-hour drive north of Pairoet. “Sometimes I believe what they say, sometimes I don’t.”

Many Thai farmers rely on local wisdom, observing the environment for signs of coming weather. This year’s abundant mango blossoms reminded them of an old saying: “If the mango tree blooms plentifully, expect to lose part of the harvest to heavy storms.”

The Thai Meteorological Department fact-checked the claim and insisted there is no scientific proof linking mango flowers to heavy storms, urging farmers not to spread false information.

Still, the belief may be rooted in real patterns. According to Dr. Sonthi, La Niña can bring colder weather and heavier rainfall later in the year.

Officials also told Climate Tracker Asia that more studies are needed before climate change can be identified as the cause of this year’s excessive mango harvest.

“Farmers in Thailand mostly are not well aware of climate change and how it will impact their farm. It’s a shame, because knowing the changing conditions can help them prevent some loss,” said agriculture professor Winai.

He added that science-based tools, such as small-scale agricultural weather stations, could help farmers. But for now, such techniques mostly remain in research projects rather than in everyday use.

Surviving the season

While it remains difficult for Thai mango farmers to adapt to the changing climate, many have come up with creative ways to get through the flooded season.

Some farmers regularly post videos of their fruit in Facebook groups to attract customers. They let buyers reserve mangoes in advance, then sell in late June — a few weeks after the chaotic season ends. One technique used is applying gibberellic acid (GA) to slow down the growing process.

One farmer hopes to sell his mangoes at 20 baht (0.6 USD) per kilo — ten times more than most farmers. But risks remain in the long run, as GA may reduce the trees’ fruiting ability. Researchers also note that while GA is widely used in developing countries, studies suggest it may be harmful to human health.

For Pairoet, the solution was selling his black-spotted mangoes to the local cooperative, which turns “unpretty” fruit into freeze-dried chips. The cooperative, run by 50 members, processes and preserves mangoes for up to two years, then sells them in franchise coffee shops. The method adds three to four times more value.

“We can process around 120 baskets of mango (2,760 kilograms) a day,” explained Yaowaret Luangmoon, 54, who handles marketing. “We have already freeze-dried large amounts — three times more than last year. If we had more capacity, we would do more so our farmers can sell their mango.”

But this year’s oversupply is only one side of the climate story. In 2018, soaring heat brought more pests and less flowering, hurting farmers in the opposite way.

Yaowaret, a farmer herself, believes Thailand’s fruit industry needs a comprehensive plan — from weather forecasting and crop planning, to processing and consumer markets. Most importantly, farmers need to be part of the process so they are not left with rotten fruit.

“It has been overwhelming for many farmers this year, but the excessive production is nothing new,” Yaowaret said. “We will encounter it again, and we need to be ready for it.”

Read this story in Thai.