The Philippines, a tropical archipelago in Southeast Asia, has been identified as one of the countries most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Rising temperatures, altered rainfall patterns, and intensifying extreme weather events have far-reaching implications for the country’s environment, economy, and society. 

This fact sheet will delve into the specific climate trends observed in the Philippines, examining shifts in temperature, rainfall patterns, tropical cyclones, and sea levels.

What you need to know

• The Philippines has experienced a steady warming trend, with annual mean temperature rising by approximately 0.16 °C per decade between 1951 and 2018. 
• The rise in nighttime temperatures was more pronounced than daytime temperatures, especially during the December to February season. 
• Urbanization has contributed to the warming trend. In Metro Manila, there has been a significant increase in warm nights and decrease in cool nights. Buildings, concrete, and other urban structures absorb and retain more heat than natural landscapes. 
• The average yearly rainfall has not changed much from 1961 to 2020. However, there was an abrupt increase in rainfall from 1995 to 2020. This shift resulted in wetter conditions from 1995 to 2020. 
• In the National Capital Region, average rainfall has risen by 78 millimeters per decade since 1901. More rainy days and tropical cyclones have contributed to higher rainfall.
• Urbanization can also enhance rainfall associated with habagat or southwest monsoon over Metro Manila by 20%. 
• The Philippines is highly vulnerable to tropical cyclones due to its location in the Western North Pacific (WNP). Around 60% of the cyclones that form in the WNP region pass through the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).
• The annual frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones in the Philippines show no noticeable long-term trend. However, the number of Christmas typhoons has surged by 210% since 2012
• Cyclone-induced rainfall has increased by 16.9% to 19.3% each decade since 2000. There are also more days with heavy rain, and this is mostly due to tropical cyclones. 
• The damage caused by tropical cyclones rose significantly from 1984 to 2018, reaching a record high in 2013 due to Super Typhoon Haiyan, locally known as Yolanda. Although costs of damage have decreased in recent years, they remain on an upward trend during the less active typhoon season.
• Sea levels in the Philippine Sea rose by an average of 5 to 7 millimeters per year between 1993 and 2015, according to studies using satellite data. Sea level rise by as much as 4.5 to 5 mm per year was also observed in east of Samar, Leyte, and regions along the southwestern coasts of the Central and Western Visayas, and the east of Mindanao and south Zamboanga.
• This increase was likely due to a combination of El Niño, long-term ocean fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean, and human-caused factors. 

FAQs

What is the overall trend of temperatures in the Philippines?

The Philippines has experienced a steady warming trend. Annual mean temperature has risen by about 0.16 °C per decade between 1951 and 2018.

How has rainfall changed in the Philippines in recent decades?

While the average yearly rainfall hasn’t changed significantly, there’s been an abrupt increase in rainfall from 1995 to 2020, leading to wetter conditions.

How has urbanization contributed to rising temperatures?

Urbanization has significantly contributed to warming, particularly in major cities like Manila. Buildings and concrete absorb and retain more heat than natural landscapes, leading to the urban heat island effect.

How much has sea level risen in the Philippines?

Sea levels in the Philippine Sea rose by an average of 5 to 7 millimeters per year between 1993 and 2015. 

Has the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones changed?

While there’s no noticeable long-term trend in the annual frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones, the number of Christmas typhoons has surged since 2012. Additionally, cyclone-induced rainfall has increased.

Use this line

• The Philippines, situated in the Western North Pacific, is particularly vulnerable to tropical cyclones. Approximately 60% of the cyclones originating in this region pass through the Philippine Area of Responsibility.
• While the annual frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones in the Philippines exhibit no significant long-term trend, the number of Christmas typhoons has seen a 210% increase since 2012. 
• Urbanization has exacerbated warming trends in Metro Manila, leading to a significant increase in warm nights and a decline in cool nights. Dense urban structures absorb and retain heat more efficiently than natural landscapes.

Angles you can explore

Rising temperatures

• Analyze the impact of urban heat island effect on specific cities, such as Manila or Cebu, and compare temperature data from these urban areas and rural areas
• Explore how building materials and urban design contribute to heat retention in cities
• Investigate the health risks associated with urban heat island effect, including heat-related illnesses and sleep disturbances
• Identify innovative solutions to mitigate the urban heat island effect, such as urban forestry

Rainfall patterns and extreme weather events

• Explore the rising frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones during the less active season
• Investigate the effectiveness of early warning systems and disaster preparedness measures in mitigating the impacts of tropical cyclones

Sea level rise

• Examine the impact of sea level rise on coastal ecosystems, such as mangroves, and the livelihoods of coastal communities
• Analyze potential displacement and migration of coastal communities due to sea level rise
• Assess the vulnerability of coastal infrastructure such as bridges and ports to sea level rise and explore potential adaptation measures
• Examine the concept of “climate refugees” in the context of the Philippines

For detailed insights, explore the 2024 Philippine Climate Change Assessment, Working Group I: The Physical Science Basis, available here.