The Philippines has been battered by a surge in tropical cyclones during the traditionally off-peak season in Western North Pacific as climate change continues to reshape weather patterns, climate scientists said in a report.

From 2012 to 2020, the Philippines experienced a 210% increase in “Christmas typhoons”—or tropical cyclones occurring from December to January. The frequency of these storms in Mindanao surged by 490% during the same period.

Most storms in the Western North Pacific form between May and November. 

“When the scientists looked at cyclones during December, January and February around that time, there were only a few. But their frequency has been increasing in recent years,” said Faye Cruz, one of the authors of a report published by the Philippine Climate Change Assessment (PhilCCA) Working Group 1 last month. Cruz is also the head of the Regional Climate Systems Laboratory at the Manila Observatory in the Philippines. 

As one of the world’s most vulnerable countries to climate change, the Philippines is battered by an average of 20 tropical cyclones each year. These increasingly powerful storms have caused widespread devastation, including fatalities, infrastructure damage, and mass displacement.

In less than a month, five major storms have pounded the Philippines—Trami (locally known as Kristine), Kong-rey (Leon), Yinxing (Marce), Toraji (Nika), and Usagi (Ofel). 

The storm-ravaged nation is bracing for Typhoon Man-yi, its sixth cyclone in less than a month. Locally known as Pepito, it is expected to strengthen into a super typhoon before making landfall. 

NASA called the string of cyclones churning simultaneously near the Philippines an “unusual sight.”

Climate scientists have warned that storms are becoming more powerful and destructive as the world becomes warmer due to human-induced climate change. 

Rise in rainfall

The report by the PhilCCA Working Group 1 also highlighted that cyclone-induced rainfall has increased from 16.9% to 19.3% per decade since 2000.

Stronger and slower-moving tropical cyclones can cause heavy and prolonged rainfall along their path. Between 1951 and 2014, cyclones induced over 40% of total rainfall in Luzon. 

Climate scientists projected a slight decrease in the number of tropical cyclones within the Philippine Area of Responsibility. 

However, these storms are expected to be more intense, especially if global emissions remain high throughout the 21st century. 

Banner photo credit: Jilson Tiu / Greenpeace